Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Mixed Economic Data Has Markets Moving Higher

This morning investors were hit with three economic data points: weekly jobless claims, first-quarter GDP, and the National Association of Realtors' pending-home-sales number. Weekly jobless claims came in at 354,000, higher than the 340,000 most economists were expecting and 10,000 claims higher than last week's reading. First-quarter GDP was expected to hit 2.5%, but the Department of Commerce pegged it at 2.4% for the first three months of the year. Lastly, the pending-homes-sale number rose 0.3% during April. This is a great sign, as we know prices and inventory are both declining, so if sales continue to rise, new-home construction will eventually pick up, and job growth should then soon follow. 

Investors seem to like this news today: As of 12:50 a.m. EDT the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) is up 63, points or 0.41%. The S&P 500 has risen 0.48%, while the Nasdaq is the best performer, rising 0.72%. But even on days when the market in general is moving higher, a number of losers can be found.

Today's Dow losers
Shares of Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO  ) are down 1.2% this afternoon after discouraging reports were released from Venezuela yesterday. Today marks the 10th day workers at the largest Coke bottler in Latin America have been on strike. As of yesterday, Coke's management claimed that the company had lost 15% of May's sales due to the strike. And yesterday the striking workers soldered the gates of the plant shut so as to not allow anyone to enter or leave the facility. In the big picture, a 15% loss in sales for one area of Coke's empire is not too damaging to total profit, but this event may end up casting a poor image of the company throughout the world. And Coke's image and brand recognition have made the company what it is today. 

Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ  ) is trading lower by 0.45% today following reports that a senior executive from Silver Lake Partners left the firm and has joined HP's team. Todd Morgenfeld is believed to have inside knowledge of the possible Silver Lake buyout offer for Dell (NASDAQ: DELL  ) , Hewlett-Packard's rival. It is believed that Morgenfeld had intimate details of the negotiations, was present during the due-diligence period, and has knowledge of what Silver Lake's strategic plan for Dell was to be after making the purchase. This should all bode well for HP and its shareholders. 

Lastly, shares of Alcoa (NYSE: AA  ) are down 0.7% after the company received a downgrade yesterday evening. The downgrade didn't apply to the stock, which would have been better for Alcoa in the long run; it came as a downgrade to the company's credit rating. Moody's has cut Alcoa to junk levels with a new rating of "Ba1" from a prior rating of "Baa3." 

Best Stocks To Watch Right Now

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Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Why AeroVironment Is Poised to Bounce Back

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, unmanned aerial vehicle specialist AeroVironment (NASDAQ: AVAV  ) has earned a coveted five-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at AeroVironment and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

AeroVironment facts

Headquarters (founded)

Monrovia, Calif. (1971)

Market Cap

$457.5 million

Industry

Aerospace and defense

Trailing-12-Month Revenue

$240.2 million

Management

Chairman/CEO Timothy Conver

CFO Jikun Kim

Return on Equity (average, past 3 years)

8.2%

Cash / Debt

$148.6 million / $0

Competitors

Aker ASA

L-3 Communications

Lockheed Martin

Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 96% of the 649 members who have rated AeroVironment believe the stock will outperform the S&P 500 going forward.

Just last week, one of those Fools, Googlespooch, tapped AeroVironment as a particularly attractive opportunity:

Drones are only getting more popular. We already extensively use drones in our combat zones (they're becoming more heavily utilized every day in war). With these types of drones (their Hummingbird and other small ones), cities like NYC and other major cities could utilize these in police actions (and general government spying). Of course, whether or not I agree with the Big Brother State is one thing ... but it's another thing if it means money in your pocket. The company is trading at a decent valuation considering the prospective future for it and seems like an interesting play.

If you want market-thumping returns, you need to put together the best portfolio you can. Of course, despite a strong five-star rating, AeroVironment may not be your top choice.

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Monday, July 29, 2013

5 Best Undervalued Stocks To Watch For 2014

Shares of Monster Beverage (NASDAQ: MNST  ) rose nearly 5% Monday after the company's board of directors approved a $200 million share repurchase program. As management stated recently, the company had already used every penny of the $250 million it authorized for share repurchases less than five months ago, so it looks like they were just itching to continue increasing shareholders' slice of the pie.

Even so, I suppose this latest authorization shouldn't have come as much of a surprise considering the company managed to spend more than $737 million in 2012, buying back shares at an average price of $54.47 per share -- or about 3% below yesterday's closing price.

Does it make sense?
Okay, we get it; the folks at Monster are trying to send investors a not-so-subtle message that they think their stock is undervalued.

5 Best Undervalued Stocks To Watch For 2014: Tupperware Corporation(TUP)

Tupperware Brands Corporation operates as a direct seller of various products across a range of brands and categories through an independent sales force. The company engages in the manufacture and sale of kitchen and home products, and beauty and personal care products. It offers preparation, storage, and serving solutions for the kitchen and home, as well as kitchen cookware and tools, children?s educational toys, microwave products, and gifts under the Tupperware brand name primarily in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, the Asia Pacific, and North America. The company provides beauty and personal care products, which include skin care products, cosmetics, bath and body care, toiletries, fragrances, nutritional products, apparel, and related products principally in Mexico, South Africa, the Philippines, Australia, and Uruguay. It offers beauty and personal care products under the Armand Dupree, Avroy Shlain, BeautiControl, Fuller, NaturCare, Nutrimetics, Nuvo, and Swissgar de brand names. The company sells its Tupperware products directly to distributors, directors, managers, and dealers; and beauty products primarily through consultants and directors. As of December 26, 2009, the Tupperware distribution system had approximately 1,800 distributors, 61,300 managers, and 1.3 million dealers; and the sales force representing the Beauty businesses approximately 1.1 million. The company was formerly known as Tupperware Corporation and changed its name to Tupperware Brands Corporation in December 2005. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Sam Collins]

    Household name Tupperware Brands Corp. (NYSE:TUP) is a global direct seller of products with multiple brands through an independent sales force of 2.4 million people. Its product line focuses on kitchen storage and serving solutions, as well as personal-care products. Over 60% of sales in 2011 are expected to come from Europe and Asia, and the stock has appeal as an emerging markets story.

    S&P estimates that 2011 earnings will increase to $4.54 versus $3.53 in 2010, and it increased its rating to a “five-star strong buy” with a recently revised 12-month target of $81, up from $73. The 2005 purchase of Sara Lee’s (NYSE:SLE) direct-sales business, which has a high growth rate, should be a long-term benefit. TUP’s annual dividend yield is 1.92%.

    Technically TUP had a pullback following a new high at over $70 and is currently oversold. Buy TUP at the current market price with a trading target of $70, but longer term a much higher target will likely be attained.

5 Best Undervalued Stocks To Watch For 2014: Schlumberger N.V.(SLB)

Schlumberger Limited, together with its subsidiaries, supplies technology, integrated project management, and information solutions to the oil and gas exploration and production industries worldwide. The company?s Oilfield Services segment provides exploration and production services; wireline technology that offers open-hole and cased-hole services; supplies engineering support, directional-drilling, measurement-while-drilling, and logging-while-drilling services; and testing services. This segment also offers well services; supplies well completion services and equipment; artificial lift; data and consulting services; geo services; and information solutions, such as consulting, software, information management system, and IT infrastructure services that support oil and gas industry. Its WesternGeco segment provides reservoir imaging, monitoring, and development services; and operates data processing centers and multiclient seismic library. This segment also offers variou s services include 3D and time-lapse (4D) seismic surveys to multi-component surveys for delineating prospects and reservoir management. The company?s M-I SWACO segment supplies drilling fluid systems to improve drilling performance; fluid systems and specialty tools to optimize wellbore productivity; production technology solutions to maximize production rates; and environmental solutions that manages waste volumes generated in drilling and production operations. Its Smith Oilfield segment designs, manufactures, and markets drill bits and borehole enlargement tools; and supplies drilling tools and services, tubular, completion services, and other related downhole solutions. The company?s Distribution segment markets pipes, valves, and fittings, as well as mill, safety, and other maintenance products. This segment also provides warehouse management, vendor integration, and inventory management services. Schlumberger Limited was founded in 1927 and is based in Houston, Texas.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Robert Holmes]

     Schlumberger has the most potential upside of any stock in this group of 50 that also makes the firm's Best Ideas list. Analyst Ole Slorer says Schlumberger has "what we consider the most advanced technology portfolio in the industry."

    "Its fundamentals are impressive, with what we think are some of the best field personnel, a pristine service and performance reputation, and leading market share in most of its product lines," Slorer writes.

    Though Slorer's price target is 42% above current levels, his most bullish scenario for Schlumberger over the next year would see shares climb a whopping 116%. On the downside, his most bearish scenario for the company would see shares slide 38% over the next 12 months.

  • [By Kathy Kristof]

    Headquarters: Houston

    52-Week High: $79.38

    52-Week Low: $56.86 

    Annual Sales: $39.5 bill.

    Projected Earnings Growth: 18% annually over the next five years 


    Energy-services giant Schlumberger is the prototypical multinational. The company derives roughly 85% of its revenues from overseas, including developing markets in Africa, Brazil and Asia. 

    With particular expertise in deep-water drilling, Schlumberger is well-positioned to compete in a world where oil is harder to find, says Argus Research analyst Philip Weiss. Admittedly, oil exploration is a cyclical business, driven largely by crude prices. And weak prices for natural gas have hit the company’s stock, Weiss says. But the price of natural gas has little to do with Schlumberger’s profits, so Weiss just sees this as an opportunity to get the shares at a more reasonable price.

Top 10 Warren Buffett Companies For 2014: Dollar Tree Inc.(DLTR)

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety stores in the United States and Canada. Its stores offer merchandise primarily at the fixed price of $1.00. The company operates its stores under the names of Dollar Tree, Deal$, Dollar Tree Deal$, Dollar Giant, and Dollar Bills. Its stores offer consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and beauty care, as well as household consumables, such as paper, plastics, household chemicals, in select stores, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise, which includes toys, durable housewares, gifts, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, and other items; and seasonal goods, such as Easter, Halloween, and Christmas merchandise. As of April 30, 2011, it operated 4,089 stores in 48 states and the District of Columbia, as well as 88 stores in Canada. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Sam Collins]

    Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR) is a leading operator of discount variety stores. The stock has hugged its 50-day moving average since mid-February. But a recent minor revision of earnings for this year by several analysts and the recent market sell-off have resulted in a fall from its high of the year at over $70 to under $66. However, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) increased its price target to $73 from $69.

    Technically DLTR is oversold, according to MACD. A break below its 50-day moving average could result in a pullback to $64, but positions could be taken at the current market price. The trading target for DLTR is $72.

5 Best Undervalued Stocks To Watch For 2014: Caterpillar Inc.(CAT)

Caterpillar Inc. manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives worldwide. It operates through three lines of businesses: Machinery, Engines, and Financial Products. The Machinery business offers construction, mining, and forestry machinery, including track and wheel tractors, track and wheel loaders, pipelayers, motor graders, wheel tractor-scrapers, track and wheel excavators, backhoe loaders, log skidders, log loaders, off-highway trucks, articulated trucks, paving products, skid steer loaders, underground mining equipment, tunnel boring equipment, and related parts. It also manufactures diesel-electric locomotives; and manufactures and services rail-related products and logistics services for other companies. The Engines business provides diesel, heavy fuel, and natural gas reciprocating engines for Caterpillar machinery, electric power generation systems, marine, petrol eum, construction, industrial, agricultural, and other applications. It offers industrial turbines and turbine-related services for oil and gas, and power generation applications. This business also remanufactures Caterpillar engines, machines, and engine components; and offers remanufacturing services for other companies. The Financial Products business provides retail and wholesale financing alternatives for Caterpillar machinery and engines, solar gas turbines, and other equipment and marine vessels, as well as offers loans and various forms of insurance to customers and dealers. It also offers financing for vehicles, power generation facilities, and marine vessels. The company markets its products directly, as well as through its distribution centers, dealers, and distributors. It was formerly known as Caterpillar Tractor Co. and changed its name to Caterpillar Inc. in 1986. Caterpillar Inc. was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Peoria, Illinois.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Jim Cramer,TheStreet]

    Caterpillar (CAT) could be a monster in 2011, especially with the integration of Bucyrus International (BUCY), which I think will turn out to be a fantastic acquisition.

    Current earnings-per-share estimates of about $6 are, I think, way too low. I see this stock going to $120 in the next year. Too gutsy? Ask yourself what happens if the United States comes back as a growth nation? Right now almost all of the growth is overseas.

    Still a fantastic mineral play and a terrific call on world growth.

Sunday, July 28, 2013

Newcastle's New Addition to a Lucrative Corner of the Mortgage Market

While new regulations on the financial industry are often derided as adding to the cost of doing business, they also have the effect of goosing the entrepreneurial spirit, resulting in new companies that spring up to take advantage of these new rules. Such is the case with the mortgage servicing industry, which has sprung to life in response to big banks such as Bank of America and Wells Fargo selling off the capital-intensive rights to service mortgages.

An immensely profitable enterprise
With a line-up of willing sellers -- and free of the capital constraints of banks -- mortgage servicers like Nationstar Mortgage (NYSE: NSM  ) , Ocwen Financial (NYSE: OCN  ) , and Walter Investment (NYSE: WAC  ) have seen their stars rise quickly, experiencing stock price surges of at least 100% over the past year.

This turn of events worked in favor of Fortress Investment Group's (NYSE: FIG  ) portfolio, which held the former Centex Corp, the subprime mortgage lending unit of a Texas homebuilder. That company is now Nationstar, which is definitely doing its fair share to add to its parent's bottom line. Also owned by Fortress is Newcastle Investment (NYSE: NCT  ) , the diversified REIT with an involvement in almost anything to do with real estate, whether residential or commercial.

On May 16, Newcastle spun off New Residential, a mortgage REIT to which Newcastle donated most of its residential-focused investments -- including its stable of MSRs -- which leaves Newcastle free to concentrate on its commercial real estate holdings.

New Residential is up and running
Barely a week old, Newcastle's offspring is teaming up with Nationstar to buy into the MSRs of a portfolio containing about $23 billion in unpaid balances. New Residential's $38 million investment will plump the company's total MSR investment to $645 billion. In addition, the deal protects New Residential from prepayment risk in the case of any refinancing of the loans by Nationstar, a detail that should please investors.

With all the MSRs being placed on the auction block, there is no doubt New Residential will be able to bulk up quickly. The most recent bank to consider selling these goodies is Flagstar Bancorp, which is rumored to be on the verge of selling off rights on a mortgage portfolio valued at $70 billion.

Just as Nationstar cut its teeth with $10 billion of Bank of America's MSRs last June, perhaps New Residential will pick up some of Flagstar's offering. It's likely, though, that the newbie will be in competition with both Ocwen and Walter, though the former seems to be concentrating lately on reverse-mortgage servicing, having recently bought a passel from Liberty Home Equity Solutions and Wells Fargo. 

Considering the abundance of MSRs constantly coming to market, and its impressive lineage, the future looks bright indeed for New Residential.

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